US Murder Rates Relative to the Death Penalty
There is a
question
after the first graph and table below --
Death penalty abolitionists usually have no trouble answering it.
Why not see if you can answer it?
Death Penalty Information Center has related material at
Data for the graph above
The red dots represent the number of US "executions" each year, multiplied by 44/98; the blue dots represent the percentages that the composite murder rate of the US states (as if they were all one state) with the death penalty was higher than that rate of the US states without it, that year -- for example, if, in year X, the death penalty states had a composite murder rate of 4 per 100,000 people per year, and the states without the death penalty had a rate of 3, the blue dot for that year would be at 33%, because 4/3 = 1.33 (data for each year is plotted on the line for the beginning of the year).
("Murder rates" are the number of murders per 100,000 people, per year.)
| Year | Number of US executions | % gap |
|---|
| 23 | 4% |
| 14 | 7% |
| 31 | 10% |
| 38 | 10% |
| 31 | 17% |
| 56 | 27% |
| 45 | 44% |
| | 42% |
| 68 | 41% |
| 98 | 28% |
| 85 | 35% |
| 66 | 37% |
| 71 | 36% |
| 65 | 44% |
| 59 | 42% |
| 60 | 46% |
| 53 | 40% |
| 42 | 42% |
This indicates that, over this period, the percentage difference that the murder rates of the death penalty states, were higher than the murder rates of the abolitionist states, grew at at least the rate at which the numbers of US "executions" grew.
Question: If the death penalty is an effective reducer of the murder rate, wouldn't that gap have declined, rather than grown?
Another way of classifying these states during this period, is to put them into 3 groups: those which have had executions since 1976; those with the death penalty, but no executions during that period; and those without the death penalty.
The graph below shows the trends in the murder rates of these three groups, with the US execution rates:
blue = composite murder rates of US states which practiced "capital punishment", since 1976
turquoise = states with the death penalty, but no executions since 1976
green = states without the death penalty
red = annual number of US executions, x 10/98
Data for the graph above
| Year | death penalty states | no-execution states | no death penalty states | number of US executions |
|---|
| 9.8 | 4.9 | 9.2 | 23 |
| 10.3 | 5 | 9.3 | 14 |
| 9.8 | 4.5 | 8.6 | 31 |
| 10 | 5.2 | 8.8 | 38 |
| 9.6 | 5 | 7.9 | 31 |
| 8.9 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 56 |
| 8 | 6 | 5.4 | 45 |
| 7.4 | 5.1 | 5 | 74 |
| 6.8 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 68 |
| 6.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 98 |
| 5.9 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 85 |
| 6.1 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 66 |
| 6.1 | 4 | 4.3 | 71 |
| 6.2 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 65 |
| 6 | 4.2 | 4 | 59 |
| 6 | 4.4 | 4 | 60 |
| 6.1 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 53 |
| 6.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 42 |
The graph above indicates that, while the murder rates of both the blue (states with executions) and green (states without the death penalty) declined markedly during this period, the rates of the abolitionist states dropped notably more than those of the "executioner" states.
However, the Death Penalty Information Center's page on the subject shows that these US death penalty states have a wide range in the rates at which they have used the death penalty (the ratio of the number of executions they have had since 1976, to their populations). Is there, then, some noticeable pattern in the change in their murder rates, when they are listed in the order of these execution/population ratios?
(The data below are from the 2002 edition.)
US states which have executed death sentences since 1976
| State | Execution to population ratio | 1990 murder rate | 2000 murder rate | change in murder rate |
|---|
Delaware | .166 | 5 | 3.2 | -36% |
Oklahoma | .145 | 8 | 5.3 | -34% |
Texas | .126 | 14.1 | 5.9 | -58% |
Virginia | .12 | 8.8 | 5.7 | -35% |
Missouri | .1 | 8.8 | 6.2 | -30% |
Arkansas | .09 | 10.3 | 6.3 | -39% |
South Carolina | .062 | 11.2 | 5.8 | -48% |
Louisiana | .058 | 17.2 | 12.5 | -27% |
Alabama | .052 | 11.6 | 7.4 | -36% |
Nevada | .045 | 9.7 | 6.5 | -33% |
Arizona | .043 | 7.7 | 7 | -9% |
Georgia | .035 | 11.8 | 8 | -32% |
Florida | .032 | 10.7 | 5.6 | -48% |
Utah | .027 | 3 | 1.9 | -37% |
North Carolina | .026 | 10.7 | 7 | -35% |
Montana | .022 | 4.9 | 1.8 | -63% |
Wyoming | .02 | 4.9 | 2.4 | -51% |
Nebraska | .018 | 2.7 | 3.7 | +37% |
Indiana | .015 | 6.2 | 5.8 | -6% |
Mississippi | .014 | 12.2 | 9 | -26% |
Illinois | .01 | 10.3 | 7.2 | -30% |
Idaho | .008 | 2.7 |
1.2 | -56% |
Maryland | .008 | 11.5 | 8.1 | -30% |
Washington | .007 | 4.9 | 3.3 | -33% |
Oregon | .006 | 3.8 | 2 | -47% |
New Mexico | .005 | 9.2 | 7.4 | -20% |
Kentucky | .005 | 7.2 | 4.8 | -33% |
California | .003 | 11.9 | 6.1 | -49% |
Ohio | .003 | 6.1 | 3.7 | -39% |
Pennsylvania | .002 | 6.7 | 4.9 | -27% |
Colorado | .002 | 4.2 | 3.1 | -26% |
Tennessee | .002 | 10.5 | 7.2 | -31% |
US states with the death penalty, but no executions since 1976
| State | 1990 murder rate | 2000 murder rate | change in murder rate |
|---|
Connecticut | 5.1 | 2.9 | -43% |
Kansas | 4 | 6.3 | +58% |
New Hampshire | 1.9 | 1.8 | -5% |
New Jersey | 5.6 | 3.4 | -39% |
New York | 14.5 | 5 | -66% |
South Dakota | 2 | .9 | -55% |
US states without the death penalty
| State | 1990 murder rate | 2000 murder rate | change in murder rate |
|---|
Alaska | 7.5 | 4.3 | -43% |
District of Columbia | 77.8 | 41.8 | -46% |
Hawaii | 4 | 2.9 | -28% |
Iowa | 1.9 | 1.6 | -16% |
Maine | 2.4 | 1.2 | -50% |
Massachusetts | 4 | 2 | -50% |
Michigan | 10.4 | 6.7 | -36% |
Minnesota | 2.7 | 3.1 | +15% |
North Dakota | .8 | .6 | -25% |
Rhode Island | 4.8 | 4.3 | -10% |
Vermont | 2.3 | 1.5 | -35% |
West Virginia | 5.7 | 2.5 | -56% |
Wisconsin | 4.6 | 3.2 | -30% |
Data from the 3 groups above
| Group of states | largest increase in murder rate | largest decrease in murder rate | total range in group |
|---|
states with executions | Nebraska, +37% | Montana, -63% | 100% |
death penalty states without executions | Kansas, +58% | New York, -66% | 124% |
states without the death penalty | Minnesota, +15% | West Virginia, -56% | 71% |
From this, it is hard to find a clear pattern, to either support or oppose the idea that the death penalty is a unique deterrent to murder -- however, we see that the highest rise in the murder rate was in Kansas (a no-execution death penalty state), the biggest drop was in New York (in that same group); the smallest maximum rise of the 3 groups was in Minnesota (an abolitionist state, which group also included the smallest maximum decrease, in West Virginia), and the extremes in the execution group were Nebraska and Montana, which have execution-to-population ratios far below those of the highest states in that column.
The numbers of population, murders, and murder rates in the linked charts are from the annual editions of Crime in the United States (formerly Uniform Crime Reports).
Kansas has been moved into the death penalty category in 1994, because it enacted the death penalty April 22 of that year; New York was moved into that group for 1996, because it enacted the death penalty September 1, 1995. (The Death Penalty Information Center website said that New York effectively abolished the death penalty on October 23, 2007; and, DPIC has still listed Kansas as a death-penalty state.)
Appreciation to Richard Dieter of Death Penalty Information Center in Washington, DC, for ideas and encouragement on this.
